Looking at the action of the markets, it looks like the US markets have started to recover from the low. DIA and SPY show stronger trading pattern over the past 3 trading days. As of current intraday, QQQ Nasdaq has climbed above the 200-day moving average (2645). Continue to monitor if QQQ managed to close above the 200-day moving average. US market is looking good for another bull-run.
For Asian markets. STI managed to stay above 3000 and closed strongly higher today at 3053. HSI and SSEC also both closed strongly higher today. Do bear in mind that these 3 markets are still below their 200-day moving average. The good point is that the sentiment is getting better.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Sunday, June 19, 2011
Major Market Indices - Jun 13th to Jun 17th 2011
Summary:
The 6 major market indices have mixed performance over the week, with the 3 Asia indices (STI, HSI and SSEC) continue below their 200-day moving average. For US markets, DIA and SPY have break the 6th consecutive down week, with the exception that QQQ has closed below their 200-day moving average.
STI (Singapore): Below 200-day MA (10 days), broke 1st support at 3070, looking to test 3000 on Monday, next support at 2934-2970. It looks ready for a rebound as it is extremely oversold.
HSI (Hong Kong): Below 200-day MA (10 days), broke 22,200 level. Testing 21,300 - 21,500.
SSEC (Shanghai): Below 200-day MA (19 days), broke the consolidation zone for the past 2 weeks (2700/2670). It's extremely oversold.
DIA (Dow Jones): Below 50-day MA, 1st up week after a 6th week drop, buyers step in.
SPY (S&P 500): Below 50-day MA, 1st up week after 6th week drop, buyers step in.
QQQ (Nasdaq): Below 200-day MA (2 days), 7th week drop, -9.64% from 2 May 11 high.
The Singapore Straits Times Index
STI continue to drift lower, continue to stay below the 200-day moving average. It broke the 3070 level with 3000 expected to be very strong. The next support below 3000 is 2940 - 2970. STI is currently in oversold region, it's more likely to go for a rebound soon. The resistance is currently at 3080.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
HSI broke 22,200 for the week. Testing 21,300 - 21,500. From the technical setup, it's rather oversold and likely to go for a rebound soon.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Shanghai Composite Index
SSEC broke the consolidation zone at 2700 - 2750. It's extremely oversold and more likely to go for a rebound soon.
Source: StockCharts.com
The S&P 500
SPY finally closed up for the week after a 6th consecutive week down. From the MACD and volume, it looks ready for a rebound to test 129 soon.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DIA finally closed up for the week after a 6th consecutive week down. From the MACD and volume, it looks ready for a rebound to test 121 soon.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Nasdaq
QQQ suffered a 7th consecutive down week and close below the 200-day moving average. QQQ selling volume picked up after it drop below 200-day MA. I expect the selling to temporary ease as the market looks to watch the earning report.
Source: StockCharts.com
The 6 major market indices have mixed performance over the week, with the 3 Asia indices (STI, HSI and SSEC) continue below their 200-day moving average. For US markets, DIA and SPY have break the 6th consecutive down week, with the exception that QQQ has closed below their 200-day moving average.
STI (Singapore): Below 200-day MA (10 days), broke 1st support at 3070, looking to test 3000 on Monday, next support at 2934-2970. It looks ready for a rebound as it is extremely oversold.
HSI (Hong Kong): Below 200-day MA (10 days), broke 22,200 level. Testing 21,300 - 21,500.
SSEC (Shanghai): Below 200-day MA (19 days), broke the consolidation zone for the past 2 weeks (2700/2670). It's extremely oversold.
DIA (Dow Jones): Below 50-day MA, 1st up week after a 6th week drop, buyers step in.
SPY (S&P 500): Below 50-day MA, 1st up week after 6th week drop, buyers step in.
QQQ (Nasdaq): Below 200-day MA (2 days), 7th week drop, -9.64% from 2 May 11 high.
The Singapore Straits Times Index
STI continue to drift lower, continue to stay below the 200-day moving average. It broke the 3070 level with 3000 expected to be very strong. The next support below 3000 is 2940 - 2970. STI is currently in oversold region, it's more likely to go for a rebound soon. The resistance is currently at 3080.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
HSI broke 22,200 for the week. Testing 21,300 - 21,500. From the technical setup, it's rather oversold and likely to go for a rebound soon.
The Shanghai Composite Index
SSEC broke the consolidation zone at 2700 - 2750. It's extremely oversold and more likely to go for a rebound soon.
The S&P 500
SPY finally closed up for the week after a 6th consecutive week down. From the MACD and volume, it looks ready for a rebound to test 129 soon.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DIA finally closed up for the week after a 6th consecutive week down. From the MACD and volume, it looks ready for a rebound to test 121 soon.
The Nasdaq
QQQ suffered a 7th consecutive down week and close below the 200-day moving average. QQQ selling volume picked up after it drop below 200-day MA. I expect the selling to temporary ease as the market looks to watch the earning report.
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Major Market Indices - Jun 6th to Jun 10th 2011
Summary:
The 6 major market indices have drifted significantly lower over the week, with the 3 Asia indices (STI, HSI and SSEC) all below their 200-day moving average. While US markets have also closed much lower for the week, however their level are still well above the long-term uptrend line of 200-day moving average.
STI (Singapore): Below 200-day MA (5 days), testing 1st support at 3070, 2nd support at 2934-2970.
HSI (Hong Kong): Below 200-day MA (5 days), testing 22,200 in mid Mar 11.
SSEC (Shanghai): Below 200-day MA (14 days), consolidate for past 2 weeks, 11.8% down from 18 Apr 11 high of 3067.46.
DIA (Dow Jones): Below 50-day MA, 6th week drop, -6.9% from 2 May 11 high.
SPY (S&P 500): Below 50-day MA, 6th week drop, -7% from 2 May 11 high.
QQQ (Nasdaq): Below 50-day MA, 6th week drop, -7.9% from 2 May 11 high.
Note: US markets were down about 13% from the Apr 2010 high before Fed announced the QE2 in Aug 2010.
The Singapore Straits Times Index
STI continue to drift lower, closing the week below the 200-day moving average. This is an unexpected move. It will begin to test the 1st support at 3070 next week, and if it break that, it will test the 2nd support at 2934 - 2970. The selling on Friday was intensified in the afternoon session. Let's watch coming week's action, i'm expecting STI to consolidate around this level and rebound from here.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
HSI closed lower than the May 11 low and will be testing the 22,200 level in the coming week.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Shanghai Composite Index
SSEC continue to consolidate for the 2nd week at 2700 - 2750. 2700 is expected to be strong, however it's still trading below the 200-day MA. Currently SSEC is resisted by the 20-day MA around 2770.
Source: StockCharts.com
The S&P 500
SPY closed lower for the 6th consecutive week. 126 is the next support level.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DIA closed lower for the 6th consecutive week. 116 is the next support level.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Nasdaq
QQQ closed lower for the 6th consecutive week. 54.35 is the next major support level. QQQ is expected to be closely watched next week as it has closed slightly above the major support line at the 200-day moving average. A break of this level could trigger more selling.
Source: StockCharts.com
The 6 major market indices have drifted significantly lower over the week, with the 3 Asia indices (STI, HSI and SSEC) all below their 200-day moving average. While US markets have also closed much lower for the week, however their level are still well above the long-term uptrend line of 200-day moving average.
STI (Singapore): Below 200-day MA (5 days), testing 1st support at 3070, 2nd support at 2934-2970.
HSI (Hong Kong): Below 200-day MA (5 days), testing 22,200 in mid Mar 11.
SSEC (Shanghai): Below 200-day MA (14 days), consolidate for past 2 weeks, 11.8% down from 18 Apr 11 high of 3067.46.
DIA (Dow Jones): Below 50-day MA, 6th week drop, -6.9% from 2 May 11 high.
SPY (S&P 500): Below 50-day MA, 6th week drop, -7% from 2 May 11 high.
QQQ (Nasdaq): Below 50-day MA, 6th week drop, -7.9% from 2 May 11 high.
Note: US markets were down about 13% from the Apr 2010 high before Fed announced the QE2 in Aug 2010.
The Singapore Straits Times Index
STI continue to drift lower, closing the week below the 200-day moving average. This is an unexpected move. It will begin to test the 1st support at 3070 next week, and if it break that, it will test the 2nd support at 2934 - 2970. The selling on Friday was intensified in the afternoon session. Let's watch coming week's action, i'm expecting STI to consolidate around this level and rebound from here.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
HSI closed lower than the May 11 low and will be testing the 22,200 level in the coming week.
The Shanghai Composite Index
SSEC continue to consolidate for the 2nd week at 2700 - 2750. 2700 is expected to be strong, however it's still trading below the 200-day MA. Currently SSEC is resisted by the 20-day MA around 2770.
The S&P 500
SPY closed lower for the 6th consecutive week. 126 is the next support level.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DIA closed lower for the 6th consecutive week. 116 is the next support level.
The Nasdaq
QQQ closed lower for the 6th consecutive week. 54.35 is the next major support level. QQQ is expected to be closely watched next week as it has closed slightly above the major support line at the 200-day moving average. A break of this level could trigger more selling.
Sunday, June 5, 2011
STI Direction: Will It Repeat The 45% Rally of Sep 2006 - Jul 2007?
Looking back at the STI from 2006 - 2007, there's some similarity between the current technical setup of STI as compared to then.
STI started to recover from the 2003 SARS crisis and took 3 years to gain about 100% (1300 - 2600). In mid Jul 2006, STI 50-day MA cut below the 200-day MA and continue until mid Sep 2006 after which it performed a golden cross (50-day MA cut above 200-day MA). This is normally a bullish sign. STI then continued to make an impressive 45% gain in the following 10 months to reach about 3700. In total, STI gained more than 180% from May 2003 to Jul 2007 (Slightly more than 4 years).
At the current level, STI has gained about 110% from Mar 2009 (slightly more than 2 years). In early Apr 2011, STI 50-day MA cut below the 200-day MA and continue to until end May 2011 after which it also performed a golden cross. This is similar to the above scenario in 2006. From the STI TA alone, it looks bullish as it's well supported along the major support level of 200-day MA.
If STI does repeat the 2003-2007 bull run, then STI might reach about 4000 in Feb / Mar 2012 from the current level. It's an upside potential of about 28%. The downside risk is near the 2800 level which is about 10%.
STI started to recover from the 2003 SARS crisis and took 3 years to gain about 100% (1300 - 2600). In mid Jul 2006, STI 50-day MA cut below the 200-day MA and continue until mid Sep 2006 after which it performed a golden cross (50-day MA cut above 200-day MA). This is normally a bullish sign. STI then continued to make an impressive 45% gain in the following 10 months to reach about 3700. In total, STI gained more than 180% from May 2003 to Jul 2007 (Slightly more than 4 years).
At the current level, STI has gained about 110% from Mar 2009 (slightly more than 2 years). In early Apr 2011, STI 50-day MA cut below the 200-day MA and continue to until end May 2011 after which it also performed a golden cross. This is similar to the above scenario in 2006. From the STI TA alone, it looks bullish as it's well supported along the major support level of 200-day MA.
Saturday, June 4, 2011
Major Market Indices - May 30th to Jun 3rd 2011
Summary:
US stock market took a holiday on Monday which was the Memorial Day. Asia market trade up mostly on Monday and Tuesday, with US market also following higher when the market opened on Tuesday. However, the US market trade sharply lower on Wednesday following disappointing economic figures.
The Singapore Straits Times Index
STI continue to consolidate between 3135 - 3180, closing the week 10 points higher than the previous week. 3180 - 3200 is a key resistance area to watch. Looking at the TA, STI is supporting very well at the current level and 50-day moving average has just crossed above the 200-day moving average. In total, STI's 50-day moving average has stayed below 200-day moving average for 36 trading days since 7 Apr 2011, it managed to crossed up on the 31 May 2011 which is bullish. It's the first sign that there may be a final bull run for STI. 3130 is the key support area.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
HSI trade higher on Monday and Tuesday. But it removed the gains by trading lower the rest of the days, with Friday closing sharply lower below the 200-day moving average. 23133 key support now turn resistance is the area to watch.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Shanghai Composite Index
SSEC consolidate for the whole week and found support above 2700. With 50-day moving average continue to stay below the 200-day moving average, SSEC is expected to consolidate for a while before deciding for further action. 2700 - 2680 is a key level to watch.
Source: StockCharts.com
The S&P 500
SPY wiped out its gain for the previous week and ended the week sharply lower. 130 is a key level to watch with 125 being the stronger support.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DIA wiped out its gain for the previous week and ended the week sharply lower. 120 is a key level to watch with 115 being the stronger support.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Nasdaq
QQQ wiped out its gain for the previous week and ended the week sharply lower. 56 is a key level to watch with 54 being the stronger support.
Source: StockCharts.com
US stock market took a holiday on Monday which was the Memorial Day. Asia market trade up mostly on Monday and Tuesday, with US market also following higher when the market opened on Tuesday. However, the US market trade sharply lower on Wednesday following disappointing economic figures.
The Singapore Straits Times Index
STI continue to consolidate between 3135 - 3180, closing the week 10 points higher than the previous week. 3180 - 3200 is a key resistance area to watch. Looking at the TA, STI is supporting very well at the current level and 50-day moving average has just crossed above the 200-day moving average. In total, STI's 50-day moving average has stayed below 200-day moving average for 36 trading days since 7 Apr 2011, it managed to crossed up on the 31 May 2011 which is bullish. It's the first sign that there may be a final bull run for STI. 3130 is the key support area.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
HSI trade higher on Monday and Tuesday. But it removed the gains by trading lower the rest of the days, with Friday closing sharply lower below the 200-day moving average. 23133 key support now turn resistance is the area to watch.
The Shanghai Composite Index
SSEC consolidate for the whole week and found support above 2700. With 50-day moving average continue to stay below the 200-day moving average, SSEC is expected to consolidate for a while before deciding for further action. 2700 - 2680 is a key level to watch.
The S&P 500
SPY wiped out its gain for the previous week and ended the week sharply lower. 130 is a key level to watch with 125 being the stronger support.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DIA wiped out its gain for the previous week and ended the week sharply lower. 120 is a key level to watch with 115 being the stronger support.
The Nasdaq
QQQ wiped out its gain for the previous week and ended the week sharply lower. 56 is a key level to watch with 54 being the stronger support.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Major Market Indices - May 23rd to May 27th 2011
Summary:
S&P downgraded its outlook on Italian government debt from "stable" to "negative", causing the major market to open sharply lower on the start of the week. However, the major market heavy selling on Monday seems to be too emotional and started to buy back. The only exception is Shanghai Composite Index to continue to trade lower due to the economic forecast being lowered.
The Singapore Straits Times Index
STI gapped down on Monday and traded sharply lower, closing below the 200-day moving average, it then spent the following 3 days supporting along the 50-day moving average and finally climbed above the 200-day moving average on Friday. 3120 is a key level to watch next week.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
HSI opened sharply lower on Monday and close even lower, which is below the 200-day moving average. It has certain similarity to the STI pattern whereby it spent the remaining days of the week trading back to above the 200-day moving average level. 23033 is a key level to watch next week.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Shanghai Composite Index
SSEC opened lower on Monday and closed sharply lower, which is below the 200-day moving average. It continued to trade even lower the remaining days and ended the week down a total of 5%. 2680 is the low level in Jan 2011 and a key level to watch next week.
Source: StockCharts.com
The S&P 500
SPY gapped down on Monday following the Asian markets heavy selldown. However the market bought back the weakness and climbed higher throughout the week. It closed above the 50-day moving average on Friday signifying that the market sentiment remain strong. 133 is a key level to watch next week.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DIA gapped down on Monday following the Asian markets heavy selldown. However the market bought back the weakness and climbed higher throughout the week. It closed on the 50-day moving average on Friday signifying that the market sentiment remain strong. 124 is a key level to watch next week.
Source: StockCharts.com
The Nasdaq
QQQ gapped down on Monday following the Asian markets heavy selldown. However the market bought back the weakness and climbed higher throughout the week. It closed slightly below the 50-day moving average on Friday signifying that the market sentiment remain strong. 57.5 is a key level to watch next week.
Source: StockCharts.com
S&P downgraded its outlook on Italian government debt from "stable" to "negative", causing the major market to open sharply lower on the start of the week. However, the major market heavy selling on Monday seems to be too emotional and started to buy back. The only exception is Shanghai Composite Index to continue to trade lower due to the economic forecast being lowered.
The Singapore Straits Times Index
STI gapped down on Monday and traded sharply lower, closing below the 200-day moving average, it then spent the following 3 days supporting along the 50-day moving average and finally climbed above the 200-day moving average on Friday. 3120 is a key level to watch next week.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
HSI opened sharply lower on Monday and close even lower, which is below the 200-day moving average. It has certain similarity to the STI pattern whereby it spent the remaining days of the week trading back to above the 200-day moving average level. 23033 is a key level to watch next week.
The Shanghai Composite Index
SSEC opened lower on Monday and closed sharply lower, which is below the 200-day moving average. It continued to trade even lower the remaining days and ended the week down a total of 5%. 2680 is the low level in Jan 2011 and a key level to watch next week.
The S&P 500
SPY gapped down on Monday following the Asian markets heavy selldown. However the market bought back the weakness and climbed higher throughout the week. It closed above the 50-day moving average on Friday signifying that the market sentiment remain strong. 133 is a key level to watch next week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DIA gapped down on Monday following the Asian markets heavy selldown. However the market bought back the weakness and climbed higher throughout the week. It closed on the 50-day moving average on Friday signifying that the market sentiment remain strong. 124 is a key level to watch next week.
The Nasdaq
QQQ gapped down on Monday following the Asian markets heavy selldown. However the market bought back the weakness and climbed higher throughout the week. It closed slightly below the 50-day moving average on Friday signifying that the market sentiment remain strong. 57.5 is a key level to watch next week.
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